Analysis

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Price and energy
GBPUSD from 1.3458 to 1.3446, down 0.10%
Market Energy Bear Bias -57.0% to Bear Extreme -76.5%, down 19.5 pts
Down candle #3 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.11%0.10%0.09%0.10%
Energy27.77.326.019.5
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.11% 0.10% 0.09% 0.10% 27.7 7.3 26.0 19.5
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.10% — higher than 49% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 19.5 pts — higher than 77% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme GBPUSD 4H

Sample: 18,215 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-16
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 263 times

When GBPUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then GBPUSD moved to higher Market State: 263 times100%
  • then GBPUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current GBPUSD market energy: -76.5%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 2%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 23.5%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

GBPUSD · H4 · 2026-09-16 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-57.0%
Bear Bias
-76.5%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
04:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

From the just-closed 4H candle data, GBPUSD in the Extreme state of Bear.

End-of-session energy readings on 4H, Market Energy reading dropped -19.5%, moving from -57% to -76.5% after the 4H candle.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, GBPUSD Market Energy ranged from -92.9 to +29.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did GBPUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 20:00 on 16-09-2026 closed, GBPUSD was at 1.3446, down 0.1% from the previous candle (1.3458). Market Energy was -76.5%, down 19.5 points from -57%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did GBPUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

GBPUSD closed at 1.3446, down 0.1% from the previous 4H candle (1.3458). This drop is larger than 49% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for GBPUSD, across 12,005 candles since 2019.

How did GBPUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 19.5 percentage points from the previous candle — from -57% to -76.5%. This drop is larger than 77% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for GBPUSD.

Do GBPUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was GBPUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had GBPUSD at -57%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, GBPUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Extreme.

Where does GBPUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -76.5%, GBPUSD is 2 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 23.5 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 68.4%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 66.4%. Against this backdrop, GBPUSD (Bear Extreme, -76.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 63.7%. GBPUSD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for GBPUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for GBPUSD on the GBPUSD overview →

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