Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
EURNZD from 2.0051 to 2.0042, down 0.04%
Market Energy Bear Bias -49.7% to Bear Critical -62.5%, down 12.8 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.18%▲ 0.12%▼ 0.23%▼ 0.04%
Energy▼ 47.7▲ 5.3▼ 28.4▼ 12.8
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.18%▲ 0.12%▼ 0.23%▼ 0.04%▼ 47.7▲ 5.3▼ 28.4▼ 12.8
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.04% — higher than 30% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 12.8 pts — higher than 54% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical EURNZD 4H

Sample: 286 4H candles from 2026-07-22 to 2026-09-28
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 3 times

▸When EURNZD is in Bear Critical:

  • then EURNZD moved to higher Market State: 3 times — 100%
  • then EURNZD moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current EURNZD market energy: -62.55%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 2.55%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 11.95%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

EURNZD · H4 · 2026-09-28 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live EURNZD chart →
Market Energy
-49.7%
Bear Bias
-62.5%
Bear Critical
Expected at
04:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, EURNZD reflects the near-extreme Bear energy state.

Market movement after the 4H candle closes, Market trend energy recorded a -12.8% drop from the previous candle, from -49.7% to -62.5%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, EURNZD Market Energy ranged from -62.5 to +61.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did EURNZD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 20:00 on 28-09-2026 closed, EURNZD was at 2.0042, down 0.04% from the previous candle (2.0051). Market Energy was -62.5%, down 12.8 points from -49.7%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did EURNZD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

EURNZD closed at 2.0042, down 0.04% from the previous 4H candle (2.0051). This drop is larger than 30% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURNZD, across 286 candles since 2019.

How did EURNZD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 12.8 percentage points from the previous candle — from -49.7% to -62.5%. This drop is larger than 54% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURNZD.

Do EURNZD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was EURNZD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had EURNZD at -49.7%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, EURNZD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does EURNZD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -62.5%, EURNZD is 2.55 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 11.95 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 46.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 89.3%. Against this backdrop, EURNZD (Bear Critical, -62.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy 20.7%. EURNZD energy is currently below DXY by 83.2 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for EURNZD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for EURNZD on the EURNZD overview →

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