Analysis

COCOA 5,756.85 ↓2.2%: Bears have the edge · 4H 00:00 Oct 17, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 5,885.85 · High 5,922.85 · Low 5,687.35 · Close 5,756.85 · Range (high − low) 235.5
COCOA closed at 5,756.85, down 129.5 (-2.20%) from 5,886.35.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Bias zone at -24.4% to Bear Bias at -38.8%, down 14.4 points.
Price and energy are moving down together.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price5,945.25,839.75,886.45,756.9
Energy19.9%-28.9%-24.4%-38.8%
Price change↑ 1.94%↓ 1.77%↑ 0.80%↓ 2.20%
Energy change↑ 3.8↓ 48.9↑ 4.6↓ 14.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↑ 1.94%↓ 1.77%↑ 0.80%↓ 2.20%↑ 3.8↓ 48.9↑ 4.6↓ 14.4
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 2.20% — higher than 73% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 14.4 pts — higher than 52% of past drops
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias COCOA 4H

Sample: 120 4H candles from 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-16
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 14 times

▸When COCOA is in Bear Bias:

  • then COCOA moved to higher Market State: 11 times — 78.6%
  • then COCOA moved to lower Market State: 3 times — 21.4%

▸Current COCOA market energy: -38.79%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 17.91%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 21.21%

"To truly understand anything, study its history" — 2AITRADING

COCOA · H4 · 2026-10-16 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live COCOA chart →
Market Energy
-24.4%
Bear Bias
-38.8%
Bear Bias
-80.6%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle completes, COCOA within trend energy leaning Bear.

Observing the COCOA market this session, A -14.4% change from the previous candle, Market Energy is now -38.8% (previous: -24.4%).

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 3 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, COCOA Market Energy ranged from -38.8 to 53.1.

Frequently asked questions

What did COCOA price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 00:00 on 16-10-2026, COCOA was at 5,756.85, down 2.2% from the previous candle (5,886.35). Market Energy was -38.8%, down 14.4 points from -24.4%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did COCOA price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

COCOA closed at 5,756.85, down 2.2% from the previous 4H candle (5,886.35). This drop is larger than 73% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for COCOA, across 119 candles since 2019.

How did COCOA Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 14.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -24.4% to -38.8%. This drop is larger than 52% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for COCOA.

Do COCOA price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was COCOA in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had COCOA at -24.4%, Bear Bias — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does COCOA energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -38.8%, COCOA is 17.91 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 21.21 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Critical with energy -67%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 64.6%. Against this backdrop, COCOA (Bear Bias, -38.8%) has higher energy than SPX500; lower than GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -46.5%. COCOA (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for COCOA.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for COCOA on the COCOA overview →

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