Analysis

·

Candle close
Price and energy
AVAXUSD from 11.12 to 10.595, down 4.72%
Market Energy Neutral 17.9% to Bear Critical -73.6%, down 91.5 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.78%▲ 0.29%▼ 0.04%▼ 4.72%
Energy▲ 11.8▲ 1.0▼ 6.7▼ 91.5
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.78%▲ 0.29%▼ 0.04%▼ 4.72%▲ 11.8▲ 1.0▼ 6.7▼ 91.5
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 4.72% — higher than 95% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 91.5 pts — higher than 99% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical AVAXUSD 4H

Sample: 13,207 4H candles from 2020-09-22 to 2026-10-02
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 630 times

▸When AVAXUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then AVAXUSD moved to higher Market State: 466 times — 74%
  • then AVAXUSD moved to lower Market State: 164 times — 26%

▸Current AVAXUSD market energy: -73.57%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 13.57%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 0.93%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

AVAXUSD · H4 · 2026-10-02 16:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live AVAXUSD chart →
Market Energy
17.9%
Neutral
-73.6%
Bear Critical
Expected at
07:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Observing the completed 4H candle, AVAXUSD within the Bear Critical zone.

On trend energy, Market Energy at -73.6%, down -91.5% from 17.9% in the previous candle.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, AVAXUSD Market Energy ranged from -83.7 to +98.1.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did AVAXUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 02-10-2026 closed, AVAXUSD was at 10.595, down 4.72% from the previous candle (11.12). Market Energy was -73.6%, down 91.5 points from 17.9%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did AVAXUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

AVAXUSD closed at 10.595, down 4.72% from the previous 4H candle (11.12). This drop is larger than 95% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for AVAXUSD, across 13,208 candles since 2019.

How did AVAXUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 91.5 percentage points from the previous candle — from 17.9% to -73.6%. This drop is larger than 99% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for AVAXUSD.

Do AVAXUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was AVAXUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had AVAXUSD at 17.9%, Neutral — when this candle closed, AVAXUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Critical.

Where does AVAXUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -73.6%, AVAXUSD is 13.57 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 0.93 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 40.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 54.1%. Against this backdrop, AVAXUSD (Bear Critical, -73.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -40.9%. AVAXUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for AVAXUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for AVAXUSD on the AVAXUSD overview →

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